Things that are more likely than Covid jab blood clot

How guessing a four-digit PIN code on the first attempt is 100 times more likely to happen than suffering a blood clot after an Oxford-AstraZeneca jab

  • People who take the AstraZeneca jab have a one in a million chance of dying
  • An amateur playing a round of golf has a 1:12,000 chance of a hole in one 
  • There is a similar chance of getting struck and killed by lightning  

With more than 20 million Britons receiving the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine so far, there have been 79 cases of rare blood clots – and 19 deaths – linked to the jab.

The figures are equivalent to one in every 250,000 of those vaccinated suffering from a clot – and one in a million dying.

To put that one-in-a-million chance into proper perspective, here is how the risk of a deadly blood clot compares with some other things that don’t happen very often…

People being vaccinated with the AstraZeneca jab have a one in a million chance of being killed

The likelihood of an amateur player scoring a hole-in-one during a round of golf is more than 83 times greater (one in 12,000)


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  • You are seven times more likely to pick five winning numbers in the National Lottery – the odds of that happening are one in 144,415;
  • Women are almost 15,000 times more likely to give birth to twins (one in 67) or 223 times more likely to have triplets (one in 4,478);
  • Your chances of having a Leap Year birthday on February 29 are 685 times greater (one in 1,461);
  • The likelihood of an amateur player scoring a hole-in-one during a round of golf is more than 83 times greater (one in 12,000);
  • Guessing a four-digit PIN code on the first attempt is 100 times more likely to happen (roughly one in 10,000);
  • The average person is almost 15 times more likely to die after being stung by a bee (one in 67,190);
  • Poker players have a 32 times better chance of scoring a royal flush (one in 30,940);
  • The odds of dying in a car crash are 2,899 higher (one in 345);
  • Someone playing ten-pin bowling is 87 times more likely to score a strike with every ball during a game (one in 11,500);
  • The chances of being struck by lightning are roughly the same (one in 1,113,333);
  • You are 100 times more likely to find a four-leaf clover (one in 10,000).

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